《投资的圣杯》
核心逻辑基于诺贝尔经济学奖得主马科维茨的现代投资组合理论
The holy grail of investing is to find 10 to 15 good, uncorrelated return streams. By assembling a number of such streams, you will achieve their average return. This approach does not lessen your return; you simply select genuinely good options that you like but that are uncorrelated. Upon reaching 15 streams, you can eliminate up to 80% of your risk, thereby improving your return-to-risk ratio by a factor of five.
It is virtually impossible to improve your ability to pick winners by a factor of five. After all, selecting what will be a winner is a competitive game, and things can change in unexpected ways, as we know.
投资的“圣杯”,就是找到10到15个良好的、互不相关的回报流。因为如果你找到了多个优质且不相关的回报流,你就能获得它们的平均回报。
所以你并没有降低你的回报,只是挑选了你真正看好且互不相关的资产,但当你凑够15个时,你就能消除80%的风险。这样,你的收益风险比就将提高五倍。
而你无论如何也不可能将你准确预测赢家的能力提高五倍。毕竟,试图找出哪个会成为赢家是一个充满竞争的博弈游戏,而且正如我们所知,事情总会在意想不到中发生变化。
—————— 瑞.达利欧